PPM: The Real Skinny

mid-July, Arbitron invited about 75 consultants, direct marketers and researchers to its headquarters to get an update on the Personal People Meter (PPM) and the Philadelphia test.
First, a brief review of how PPM works. An audio source, such as radio, TV or Internet, is encoded with a unique code station. This signal is broadcast along with the regular program audio. A pager-sized PPM picks up the encoded signal and keeps track of the time and station. Users are instructed to wear the device all day, which contains a motion sensor. At night, each panelist is to place their PPM in a docking station that recharges the PPM battery, extracts the data, gives messages of encouragement and displays daily points earned (motivation for carrying PPM). For every home, a central data collection modem unit gathers the data from the individual docking stations and transmits each user’s listening/viewing information via phone Arbitron.
The Recruitment
The recruitment of PPM panelists is a two-stage approach. The initial contact is just like a diary using random phone numbers. The second phase is to enumerate the characteristics of the household with a census-like survey of eight variables: county of residence, presence of children, race/ethnicity, cable and satellite usage, household size, employment status, language preference, and number of TV sets. Missing are education and income criteria. The goal is to recruit panelists who mirror the characteristics of the market population. Panelists know what they are getting into.
The current plan is for panelists to participate a maximum of two years for the household, with shorter time limits under consideration (TV researchers want to see year to year change). The actual turnover has been faster. In the Wilmington, Delaware test, half the panel changed within eight months. With the current Philadelphia DMA test, the panel is changing about 8-10% per month as panelists either move, are tired of doing it, can’t handle the responsibility, or a household is not doing a good enough job. All members in a household must participate. If one does not, the PPM unit is pulled from the household.
There is also a panel security arrangement where participants understand that they can’t tell anyone what they are doing, and if somebody snoops, they are to contact Arbitron.
Arbitron monitors the data streams coming from the panelists. They have a “tough love” approach with telephone, email and mail contact and check up after two days if there seems to be a problem. Arbitron contacts panelists monthly and quarterly with routine and as needed communications.
Just as with the diary, Arbitron is having some similar problems with PPM recruitment, household cooperation and installation rates and is working to improve this.
So how is the test going so far? May data shows panelists in-tab with a higher number of participants past the age of 35 than the population. Males 18-24 had the lowest percentage of representation in the panel with 36% not installed as of yet.
Results have been consistent with the docking and undocking of the PPM unit with it being carried nearly all day. The PPM is out of the dock for 15:45 and carried 15:10. Men and women are almost identical in undock and carry times, but the younger the demo the more likely it’s to be undocked with a bit less time carrying the unit.
The average time taking the PPM out of dock is 7:08 a.m.. weekdays and returning it to the unit at 11:01 p.m. On weekends, a later undock time of 8:30 a.m.. and placing it back into the dock at 11:06 p.m. 18-24 year olds have later times for both taking the unit out and putting it back.
To be in-tab, a panelist must undock and wear the PPM for at least 8 hours. 75% of the panel uses the PPM for that length of time, with 15% not cooperating, and a 10% technical disqualification.
New Terminology
With a new way of measurement comes new terms to become familiar with. These are used in the reports that clients will be able to produce. Most are familiar, but with a new twist. Besides what we’re used to now with weekly cume, there is an Average Daily Cume and Average Daily Cume Percentage. It’s the same cume principle just drilled down to listening five minutes with a specific time during an average day. Average Daily In-Tab Panelists counts the unique number of panelists in a target demo for each day. AWTE (Average Weekly Time Exposed) and ATE (Average Daily Time Exposed) are newfangled words for TSL since the possibility exists for PPM to measure TV, “Time spent listening” becomes “time exposed.” PUMM (Persons Using Measured Media) is the same as PUR (Persons Using Radio), but because of TV it has to be changed to media. Measured media is the operative word. A medium has to be encoded in order to be counted in the ratings.
The Results
Okay, now let’s get to the root of a lot of industry hubbub. The results. Arbitron compared Spring phase two (March/April/May) with April 25 - May 22 PPM listening. The average in-tab per week in PPM was 663 diaries, compared with 387 average per week for the diary.
The big story is the much higher cume audience... in many cases doubling or tripling the diary estimates. Using the diaries, only one radio station has a reach greater than 20%. With PPM, 16 stations have a cume of 20% or higher. For example, WBEB, a mainstream AC, had a 17.5% cume reach in diaries and a 53.3% reach in PPM. CHR WIOQ doubled from 18% to 38.3%. Classic Hits WMGK showed 11.2% in diaries and 29.2% in PPM estimates. This type of increase was seen across a lot of formats. And, as time goes on, a station’s reach grows.
Many are wondering why the increase is so dramatic. Which is real? There seems to be several reasons for the differences. Radio’s reach grows with time. The PPM panel shows listening changes over four weeks versus one week in the diary. Diaries are weekly self-reported versus PPM, which is passive, electronic measurement, over four weeks or longer. The average number of reported stations in a diary is three; with PPM, the number is six. In the May PPM data, 18% of the listeners had listened to more than 10 stations.
With the higher cume comes much lower TSL. More cume brings in more lighter listeners and that brings down overall TSL. So much so that with higher cume audience, in general, stations had AQH ratings similar to results from the diary. P1 listeners still play a part of the stations’ ratings, but new listeners dilute overall TSL and cume/AQH percentages. In the diary, the P1 audience is approximately 31% of a station’s cume and accounts for 68% of its quarter hours. In PPM, the P1 audience is just 16% of the cume and accounts for 54% of the station’s quarter hours. PPM Continued from Page 22
The crediting of quarter hours is slightly different in PPM than in diary. Cume figures are measured the same, but for PPM, any listening within a quarter hour can total five minutes and does not have to be continuous to get credit for the quarter hour. Diary listening must have at least five continuous minutes in a quarter hour to be counted.
There is also a lower incidence of heavy listening of more than 100-quarter hours. In diaries 7.7% come back with 100+ quarter hours. For PPM, just 1% had more than 100-quarter hours to a given station. Listening is not as concentrated to one radio station in PPM. There are more occasions of listening with shorter periods of time spent listening. Affecting the number of listening occasions will be a key to succeed in the PPM world.
Demos
So how does using PPM affect AQH ratings comparison by demographic? In general for PPM, the 12+ rating is slightly higher. Teens are a bit lower while 18-34, 25-54 and 35-64 shows consistency. The noticeable difference, Arbitron says, is in 55+, which is slightly lower.
When you compare radio usage on an hour by hour basis, there is similar findings outside of mornings, where gaps exist in 12+ numbers, which driven by 55+, has the biggest gap. There is much higher listening in evenings, overnights and weekends versus diary data.
What about AQH difference? The results, for the most part, are similar with AC and Rock having the most significant difference. For 18-34s, both AC and CHR tended to have more average quarter hour persons. For 25-54, Rock is big winner, with CHR and AC up slightly.
Arbitron says that AQH ratings will tend to be more stable using PPM because of more days of listening observations. Since more days are measured this creates a better picture of behavior and stability and the reliability of the numbers increases. In the Wilmington, Delaware study, the precursor to Philadelphia, Arbitron found that PPM is three times more reliable than a diary. A 1,000-person PPM sample would equal a 3,000-diary sample. This study will be repeated in Philadelphia.
With PPM, programmers and sales departments will have access to data and have the ability to track or sell the listening habits in a more unique fashion. One example given was the influx of listeners seen to AC WBEB on Valentine’s Day. Sporting event tracking showed how when the 76er’s were losing a game in the playoffs, the audience dwindled as the game went on. When they were winning, you could see the audience remain with the station. Even a stock market rally was seen with increases on News KYW. You can look as specific days, weeks, months or hours.
When and How
So when is PPM coming to your market? That depends on several scenarios, with Nielsen the lynchpin. Nielsen has the option to form a joint venture with Arbitron and a decision is expected in the fourth quarter. If this comes to fruition, there will be a joint company created for setting up and collecting data, with date for TV or radio sent to the individual company, who then sends it to each of their customers. Arbitron says that radio will have access to TV data, but that TV will have to pay extra for radio data. If Nielsen and Arbitron join forces, then PPM will be rolled out in the Top 100 DMAs (Designated Market Area - sampling units based on historical television viewing patterns), which will encompass approx
imately 175 radio markets. Arbitron expects that Philadelphia would be diary-free by mid-2003. There will be a three month overlap between diary and PPM services. The timeline would add an additional four top 10 markets over 12-18 months in mid-2003, reaching full capacity in those top 100 DMAs by the end of 2008. All other markets would remain on diary service. The largest markets would roll out first.
If the joint venture with Nielsen does not form, Arbitron feels PPM will be too expensive for radio only, as it needs TV and cable to help defer the costs and will take the technology internationally and with different applications.
Costs
Now the $64,000 question... how much will it cost? Arbitron says that the cost to encode won’t be a lot of money, “not in the thousands.” They are not in a position to give the cost of PPM service. They know some of the hard costs for PPM. The biggest expense is the sample recruitment and sample maintenance.
Continued Testing
Since the PPM summit, due to concerns of broadcasters, Arbitron has announced a plan to expand its PPM trial, equipping a new and separate panel of nearly 1,000 users. This panel will provide a comparison of the audience estimates being produced by the existing panel.
Since there is a little Hispanic audience in Philadelphia, Arbitron had already been conducting “agree to participate tests” in tow Hispanic markets. Because of concerns, Arbitron has also agreed in principle to the industry’s request for a second PPM trial in one of the top 25 Hispanic markets. This would be contingent on the joint venture with Nielsen.
As more developments and changes affecting Arbitron and PPM are made public, we’ll keep you informed. •
Written by Dan Vallie, Jim Richards, Mike Donovan, Harv Blain
reprinted with permission from Vallie Richards Consulting, Inc.M